According to official data released by the finance ministry on April 1, gross GST collections in FY24 exceeded Rs 20 lakh crore and came in at Rs 20.18 lakh crore, while on a net basis it was Rs 18.1 lakh crore. Central GST collections amounted to Rs 8.63 lakh crore as against the revised estimate of Rs 8.11 lakh crore.

The Centre had retained the Budget estimate for GST collections for FY24 as the Revised estimate including the GST compensation cess at Rs 1.45 lakh crore. The overall target from GST was pegged at Rs 9.56 lakh crore for last fiscal.

The Interim Budget 2024-25 has budgeted the mop up from GST at Rs 10.67 lakh crore, which is 11.6% higher than the target for last fiscal. This includes Central GST collections of Rs 9.17 lakh crore and the revenue from cess at Rs 1.5 lakh crore.

“The Government of India had targeted GST receipts of Rs 9.6 lakh crore in FY24RE, and it is likely that it may have achieved its target (about 94% of half of annual GST receipts were retained by the GoI in the last two years,” said the Ecoscope Report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

For FY25, the GoI has budgeted a growth of 11.6%, implying GST receipts of Rs 22.6 lakh crore or monthly receipts of Rs 1.88 lakh crore, it said, adding that it thinks the target is achievable. “If so, we could see GST collections of Rs 2-2.1 lakh crore in April 2024, implying a growth of 10-11% year on year in the month, which is usually the best month of the year,” it said, while warning that if achieved, one must not get carried away by a new record high monthly collection.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head Research and Outreach, ICRA said that with a continued double-digit growth, the CGST collections have exceeded the FY2024 RE, even as there is a modest shortfall in the GST compensation cess inflows, which are now being used to repay the loans undertaken during the Covid period. “With the CGST collections surpassing the FY2024 RE, the implicit growth needed to meet the Interim Budget Estimate for FY2025 has come down to single-digits, which appears likely to be exceeded,” she said.

DK Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India noted that the GST revenues are now able to show the revenue buoyancy expected at the time of its roll out. GST revenue buoyancy is 1.5 given the net GST growth of 13.4% and nominal GDP growth of 9.1% in FY24, which is quite high, he said.