The revenues in the current financial year up to January 2023 are 24 per cent higher than the GST revenues during the same period last year. (File)

GST collections in the first 11 months of FY23 have already touched ₹16.46 lakh crore, a robust 22.7% year-on-year growth, according to data from the finance ministry. It is expected that the growth trend will be maintained even in the last month and at least ₹1.50 lakh crore revenue is expected in March, the officials added, on condition of anonymity.

GST collections in the first 11 months of FY23 have already touched ₹16.46 lakh crore.

“According to a conservative estimate, even if the average ₹1.49 lakh crore monthly GST collection (thus far in 2022-23) is maintained in the month of March, the total GST revenue for 2022-23 would be ₹17.88 lakh crore, which is quote close to ₹18 lakh crore mark. We expect to do better as collection data is still coming in,” one of them said.

The uptrend in GST collections — both for the Centre and states — was anticipated in advance. Hence, the Union government raised GST revenue numbers in the revised estimates (RE) for 2022-23, a second official said.

The Union government’s budget estimate (BE) for (central) GST collections in 2022-23 was ₹7.80 lakh crore, but later, towards the end of the financial year (on February 1, 2023) the number was raised to ₹8.54 lakh crore in the revised estimates (RE) of FY23.

An expert, citing the Reserve Bank of India’s data related to GST collections by states and Union territories, said the initial GST collection estimates were ₹7.62 lakh crore for 2022-23 BE. Factoring in a corresponding jump (compared to the central GST), the RE for state GST revenues in FY23 could also be revised to about ₹8.35 lakh crore. “With about ₹16.46 lakh crore already collected in 11 months of this financial year, it is certain that the total GST revenues for 2022-23 will be in excess of the combined RE of ₹16.88 lakh crore.” This person added that a ₹1.50 lakh crore monthly GST collection is expected to be a new normal.

MS Mani, partner at Deloitte India said the rise in GST collections is down to two main reasons — the Indian economy is performing well compared to many global economies, and the indirect tax regime has increasingly become efficient and business-friendly.

“The expectation of robust GST collections for March may lead to new average monthly normal of ₹1.5 lakh crore, which reaffirms the fact that many of the macroeconomic indicators point to an economic resurgence. We need to bear in mind that the collections that will be reported on 1st April relate to transactions in February 2023,” he said, suggesting that the collections in April 2023 would be even more as it would reflect business transactions of 31 days in the month of March.

The GST revenue in February 2023 recorded a 12% year-on-year jump to a little over ₹1.49 lakh crore, the fourth highest ever. According to experts, the ₹1,49,577 crore revenue — as against ₹1,33,026 crore last February — underscored the robustness of the Indian economy despite strong global headwinds due to the Ukraine war and demand contractions in major economies. The monthly GST revenue collection, a weathervane of economic health, has been buoyant in recent months — the record ₹1.67 lakh crore collection came in April 2022 — but GDP numbers released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) recently showed that the Indian economy grew at a lower-than-expected 4.4% in the third quarter (October-December 2022) of the current financial year because of a contraction in manufacturing and slowing consumption.